Ukraine – Russia Crisis : Lessons To Be Learnt. Ukraine Russia Crisis has opened a lot of can of worms and exposed the true Geopolitics.
For all practical purposes, Ukraine-Russia War can be treated as the first major war in the social media generation with global ramifications. Many from doyens like John Mearsheimer to a junior analyst in a newspaper in a remote corner of the world have tried to analyze the war – the reasons for it, the progress and the way forward and all one can do is present a slightly different take on the events which transpired. Are there any lessons to be learnt out of this conflict – lessons which can shape the world in days to come? Besides the fact that NATO refused to fight for Ukraine, I see four major themes which can impact the future course of action.
Liberalism and Wokeness are catchy but they can’t run countries. Having an immature liberal in a theatre of intense geopolitical confusion will only add to more chaos.
It is a well known fact that the President of Ukraine (for that matter, the Prime Minister and even the First Vice Prime Minister) are not career politicians or diplomats and don’t have even a decade worth of experience in governance. The President of Ukraine, for example is a career actor and comedian whose claim to fame is a TV Series Servant of the People in which he, a teacher becomes the head of the Country. At the time of elections, Kvartal 95 Studio, the Production firm of the Series which is partly owned by Zelenskyy himself registered a political party with the name Servant of the People which was used as a launch vehicle for his political aspirations. In fact, his campaign wasn’t serious enough and one would notice it’s high on activism. Notes Wikipedia:
He did not release a detailed policy platform and his engagement with mainstream media was minimal; he instead reached out to the electorate via social media channels and YouTube clips. In place of traditional campaign rallies, he conducted stand-up comedy routines across Ukraine with his production company Kvartal 95. He styled himself as an anti-establishment, anti-corruption figure, although he was not generally described as a populist. He said he wished to restore trust in politicians, “to bring professional, decent people to power” and to “change the mood and timbre of the political establishment”.
In fact, his tenure is not free of controversies. Many leading figures of Kvartal 95 Studio received high political positions, he restored the citizenship of the anti-Russian Georgian leader Mikheil Saakashvili a part of his government and the corruption rankings didn’t increase much – in fact, within a year of his coming to power, Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index took a downward trajectory.
However, the real immaturity of the government is seen in the way the Government dealt with Russia. Rather than trying to mend bridges with Russia, one would notice that Ukraine played no part in diffusing the weeks long stand-off with Russian Army. Even at a stage where war is clearly lost with every major city in the East under siege, it put immediate Russian evacuation as a pre-condition to talks.
One would note that Ukraine saw things only in Black and White and not in the usual multiple shades of grey.
The concept of diplomatic propriety took a severe hit with reports emerging of Ukrainian Government and Government affiliated entities indulging in institutional racism and holding citizens of foreign countries as hostages.
Reports have started over institutional racism from the start of the fight – especially towards Indian and African students – over access to facilities to cross the borders, at border check posts and others. Not just that, the dialogue over Ukraine’s refugees has taken an overtly racial turn even to the extent that countries which opposed refugees from Middle East tooth and nail are open to accept refugees from Ukraine just because they are whites.
At least for Indians, situation turned worse after India decided to stay neutral in the fight between two distant countries. While it started with a veiled threat with the Ukraine’s Ambassador to UN, news started slowly trickling in over the Ukraine border authorities refusing to allow Indian citizens to cross the border to even cases of not allowing the students to leave the warzones. Situation ultimately came under control when India spoke to both Ukraine and Russia and sent Cabinet Ministers to manually oversee the evacuation process in the bordering countries. However, the primary question lies. Can you hold a student or for that manner, any citizen accountable for the actions of a government and punish them in an attempt to force the government change it’s decision? Such sort of acts will be remembered for long and the trust deficit arising out of such an act is not something which can be easily corrected.
See the following thread we posted with evidences of Racism in Ukraine and Poland expecting only White Christian Refugees and many videos shared on social media showing racial discriminations against Black African Nationals and Indian students with people being deboarded from the trains only because they were nonwhites and Ukrainians expect them to take up arms and fight their war against Russia and use these untrained civilians as human shields from Russian Bombings.
Related Article One Indian student killed in Kharkov : Ukraine Russia Crisis
Deployment of Corporate Ecosystem and neutral bodies as a War Machine
In a surprising turn of events, Corporate World and even seemingly neutral bodies joined America in it’s censure of Russia over it’s invasion of Ukraine. The litany of entities boycotting Russia range from FedEx and Facebook to International Olympic Council and International Cat Federation. This cancellation has entered to a grotesque level that works of Dostoevsky and Leo Tolstoy were being censured just because they are Russian!!
However, the real impact noticed was in the financial space. Two main themes are noticed – removal of Russia from SWIFT and cancellation by VISA and Mastercard, and seizing Russia’s foreign reserves. Clearly, this will mean that countries will become more wary and will plan for alternates in case such a thing happens – as we speak, Russia is already in talks with China over deployment of it’s in house payment system as a replacement. Whether this results in creation of a viable alternate or whether Russia will be forced to buckle down and do to West’s bidding is something to be seen.
Check out this thread which we are continuously updating and adding more information as we receive.:
Europe’s overt dependence of sanctions is a clear indicator that Europe’s military might doesn’t exist. All it has is a transnational entity for it’s security which is managed by USA and European contribution into it is minimal.
The most distressing outcome of this war is the realization that Europe, both as individual nations and as a collective entity doesn’t have the capacity to wage a serious war. It’s security is handled by NATO which for all practical purposes works on American capabilities and one would notice that to compensate this handicap, Europe started flexing it’s financial heft. 65 years of relative peace and 30 years of absolute peace in Europe and the fact that America has taken responsibility over Europe’s security made it more lax in it’s approach towards territorial defense and the sudden surge in military spending which is being noticed now can give weaponry but it will still take time for quality soldiers to man their barracks.
This brings us back to Russia’s Foreign Policy Document, some points of which resonate with what’s happening around us.
- Erosion of Political and Global Economic Dominance of the Traditional West in favour of Asia-Pacific and attempts to counter it by imposing their point of view on every global thing.
- To counter attempts to use human rights theories to exert political pressure and interfere in internal affairs of States, including with a view to destabilizing them and overthrowing legitimate governments;
- Domination of Civilizational Identity and attempts to impose/deride civilizations through xenophobia, intolerance and conflict in international affairs, leading ultimately to chaos and an uncontrolled situation in international relations.
- Force as a rising commodity in international relations amid escalating political, social and economic contradictions focusing on arms race in a system of arms control treaties and agreements.
- Interconnectivity of people and states means attempts to ensure stability and security within a single territory are doomed to fail.
- In addition to traditional methods of diplomacy, “soft power” has become an integral part of efforts to achieve foreign policy objectives. This primarily includes the tools offered by civil society, as well as various methods and technologies – from information and communication, to humanitarian and other types.
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